The CFR’s 50-50 WPS Conflict Prediction - is there a hidden meaning?

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) made headlines a few days ago when it made an official prediction that there will be a 50-50 chance that the on-going territorial disputes in the West Philippine Sea will erupt into a shooting conflict in 2015.

What is the CFR?

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), founded in 1921, is a United States nonprofit, 4,900 -member organization, publisher, and think-tank specializing in U.S. foreign policy and international affairs. Its membership has included senior politicians, more than a dozen Secretaries of State, CIA Directors, bankers, lawyers, professors, and senior media figures.

The CFR regularly convenes meetings at which government officials, global business leaders, and prominent members of the intelligence/foreign policy community discuss major international issues. It publishes the bi-monthly journal “Foreign Affairs”, and runs a think-tank called the "David Rockefeller Studies Program", which influences foreign policy by making recommendations to the Presidential Administration and the diplomatic community, testifying before Congress, interacting with the media, and authoring books, reports, articles, and op-eds on foreign policy issues.

The CFR is headquartered in New York City, with an additional office in Washington, D.C.

(source: Wikipedia)

Based on the above information, the extent of the CFR’s influence on US (and Western) foreign policy is quite obvious.

Is there a hidden meaning then on the CFR’s 50-50 prediction?

Was it really a prediction at all?

Or was the CFR trying to send a subtle message to Beijing on behalf of the entire Western World?

I believe that the US will initiate military action in the WPS with or without the involvement of the direct territorial dispute stakeholders, if the same is to the interest of the entire Western World in general, and to US national interest in particular.

The US (and the Western World’s) conflict with China is not only confined to the WPS.  The WPS is just a litmus test of China's long-term plan to challenge the West for global control.

And just like Korea in 1950, and Vietnam in 1965, the early initiation of localized military hostilities will actually help in preventing a much bigger conflagration.

The Korean War and the Vietnam War were not really wars.  They were mere battles in the Cold War.

And the Western World won the Cold War…