Why the SOKOR Chang Bogo is the best attack submarine choice for the Philippines

Based on published war games performance, Sweden's Gotland-class would be the best diesel-electric hunter-killer submarine in the world today.  It is highly-resistant to electronic detection.  Its publicly-acknowledged "kills" in mock battles with other First World navies include Spanish warships, a French SSN, a US SSN, and even a US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. The Gotland was so good that the US Navy even leased a fully-crewed Gotland for two (2) years so that they can learn first-hand how to defeat the sub.

The only obvious limitation of the Gotland is that it does not have any capability to launch long-range ASMs like the US Harpoon.  But then again, it was designed as a pure hunter-killer that would stalk its target silently until it is within torpedo range.  Not one that would risk detection in order to engage surface targets at long-range.

 

So if the Gotland is that good, how come I am recommending the SOKOR Chang Bogo?

 

And my answer can be summarized in one word: "Indonesia"
 

Indonesia had just acquired three (3) SOKOR Chang Bogos for about $1.1B.   Eventually, they would need to operate 10 to 12 of these subs within the next 20 years to have a credible underwater deterrent both in the Strait of Malacca and in the Timor Gap.  In case the country will successfully be able to operate 12, about 10 of these will be deployed in the Strait of Malacca, specifically, in the vicinity of the Natuna Island Group (which, as Beijing had recently announced publicly, is included in her "island wish list").

 

Now let's talk about the Philippines.  How many diesel-electric subs can the country realistically afford?  I would say a maximum of four (4).  So at any given time, the country will only be able to deploy at most three (3) subs in the West Philippine Sea, to harass the shipping lanes of Beijing in case a shooting conflict erupts. 

 

And three (3) subs are not really that much to handle in the context of Beijing's growing ASW capabilities.

 

Or is it?  What if those three (3) subs are also Chang Bogo subs and they happen to share the same Malacca Strait international waters with the Chang Bogo subs of Indonesia?   How do you distinguish which Chang Bogo belongs to which country?

 

Let us say you detect  nine (9) Chang Bogos and you know that only three (3) of them could possibly belong to the Philippines.  Which one would you sink?  Will you risk drawing Indonesia into the conflict just to sink a Philippine Chang Bogo?

 

That would be a game-changing decision indeed.  Because if you exclude Uncle Sam from the equation, the 800-pound military gorilla that could choke the sea lanes of SEA is Indonesia.  And just like Imperial Tokyo in the first half of the 20th century, the economic fortunes of Beijing will rise or fall with the availability of the sea lanes of SEA.

#NineDashLineFraud

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The CFR’s 50-50 WPS Conflict Prediction - is there a hidden meaning?

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) made headlines a few days ago when it made an official prediction that there will be a 50-50 chance that the on-going territorial disputes in the West Philippine Sea will erupt into a shooting conflict in 2015.

What is the CFR?

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), founded in 1921, is a United States nonprofit, 4,900 -member organization, publisher, and think-tank specializing in U.S. foreign policy and international affairs. Its membership has included senior politicians, more than a dozen Secretaries of State, CIA Directors, bankers, lawyers, professors, and senior media figures.

The CFR regularly convenes meetings at which government officials, global business leaders, and prominent members of the intelligence/foreign policy community discuss major international issues. It publishes the bi-monthly journal “Foreign Affairs”, and runs a think-tank called the "David Rockefeller Studies Program", which influences foreign policy by making recommendations to the Presidential Administration and the diplomatic community, testifying before Congress, interacting with the media, and authoring books, reports, articles, and op-eds on foreign policy issues.

The CFR is headquartered in New York City, with an additional office in Washington, D.C.

(source: Wikipedia)

Based on the above information, the extent of the CFR’s influence on US (and Western) foreign policy is quite obvious.

Is there a hidden meaning then on the CFR’s 50-50 prediction?

Was it really a prediction at all?

Or was the CFR trying to send a subtle message to Beijing on behalf of the entire Western World?

I believe that the US will initiate military action in the WPS with or without the involvement of the direct territorial dispute stakeholders, if the same is to the interest of the entire Western World in general, and to US national interest in particular.

The US (and the Western World’s) conflict with China is not only confined to the WPS.  The WPS is just a litmus test of China's long-term plan to challenge the West for global control.

And just like Korea in 1950, and Vietnam in 1965, the early initiation of localized military hostilities will actually help in preventing a much bigger conflagration.

The Korean War and the Vietnam War were not really wars.  They were mere battles in the Cold War.

And the Western World won the Cold War…