Why the SOKOR Chang Bogo is the best attack submarine choice for the Philippines

Based on published war games performance, Sweden's Gotland-class would be the best diesel-electric hunter-killer submarine in the world today.  It is highly-resistant to electronic detection.  Its publicly-acknowledged "kills" in mock battles with other First World navies include Spanish warships, a French SSN, a US SSN, and even a US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. The Gotland was so good that the US Navy even leased a fully-crewed Gotland for two (2) years so that they can learn first-hand how to defeat the sub.

The only obvious limitation of the Gotland is that it does not have any capability to launch long-range ASMs like the US Harpoon.  But then again, it was designed as a pure hunter-killer that would stalk its target silently until it is within torpedo range.  Not one that would risk detection in order to engage surface targets at long-range.

 

So if the Gotland is that good, how come I am recommending the SOKOR Chang Bogo?

 

And my answer can be summarized in one word: "Indonesia"
 

Indonesia had just acquired three (3) SOKOR Chang Bogos for about $1.1B.   Eventually, they would need to operate 10 to 12 of these subs within the next 20 years to have a credible underwater deterrent both in the Strait of Malacca and in the Timor Gap.  In case the country will successfully be able to operate 12, about 10 of these will be deployed in the Strait of Malacca, specifically, in the vicinity of the Natuna Island Group (which, as Beijing had recently announced publicly, is included in her "island wish list").

 

Now let's talk about the Philippines.  How many diesel-electric subs can the country realistically afford?  I would say a maximum of four (4).  So at any given time, the country will only be able to deploy at most three (3) subs in the West Philippine Sea, to harass the shipping lanes of Beijing in case a shooting conflict erupts. 

 

And three (3) subs are not really that much to handle in the context of Beijing's growing ASW capabilities.

 

Or is it?  What if those three (3) subs are also Chang Bogo subs and they happen to share the same Malacca Strait international waters with the Chang Bogo subs of Indonesia?   How do you distinguish which Chang Bogo belongs to which country?

 

Let us say you detect  nine (9) Chang Bogos and you know that only three (3) of them could possibly belong to the Philippines.  Which one would you sink?  Will you risk drawing Indonesia into the conflict just to sink a Philippine Chang Bogo?

 

That would be a game-changing decision indeed.  Because if you exclude Uncle Sam from the equation, the 800-pound military gorilla that could choke the sea lanes of SEA is Indonesia.  And just like Imperial Tokyo in the first half of the 20th century, the economic fortunes of Beijing will rise or fall with the availability of the sea lanes of SEA.

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#WestPhilippineSea

#ChinaGoHome

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The CFR’s 50-50 WPS Conflict Prediction - is there a hidden meaning?

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) made headlines a few days ago when it made an official prediction that there will be a 50-50 chance that the on-going territorial disputes in the West Philippine Sea will erupt into a shooting conflict in 2015.

What is the CFR?

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), founded in 1921, is a United States nonprofit, 4,900 -member organization, publisher, and think-tank specializing in U.S. foreign policy and international affairs. Its membership has included senior politicians, more than a dozen Secretaries of State, CIA Directors, bankers, lawyers, professors, and senior media figures.

The CFR regularly convenes meetings at which government officials, global business leaders, and prominent members of the intelligence/foreign policy community discuss major international issues. It publishes the bi-monthly journal “Foreign Affairs”, and runs a think-tank called the "David Rockefeller Studies Program", which influences foreign policy by making recommendations to the Presidential Administration and the diplomatic community, testifying before Congress, interacting with the media, and authoring books, reports, articles, and op-eds on foreign policy issues.

The CFR is headquartered in New York City, with an additional office in Washington, D.C.

(source: Wikipedia)

Based on the above information, the extent of the CFR’s influence on US (and Western) foreign policy is quite obvious.

Is there a hidden meaning then on the CFR’s 50-50 prediction?

Was it really a prediction at all?

Or was the CFR trying to send a subtle message to Beijing on behalf of the entire Western World?

I believe that the US will initiate military action in the WPS with or without the involvement of the direct territorial dispute stakeholders, if the same is to the interest of the entire Western World in general, and to US national interest in particular.

The US (and the Western World’s) conflict with China is not only confined to the WPS.  The WPS is just a litmus test of China's long-term plan to challenge the West for global control.

And just like Korea in 1950, and Vietnam in 1965, the early initiation of localized military hostilities will actually help in preventing a much bigger conflagration.

The Korean War and the Vietnam War were not really wars.  They were mere battles in the Cold War.

And the Western World won the Cold War…

The Paradox of the Ordinary Fighter...

Fighting skill is generally measured in terms of Speed and Power.

Which is why he was just initially considered an ordinary fighter.  He does not have exceptional speed.  Nor does he have exceptional power.

This is particularly highlighted when his martial arts class is doing bag work.  Some of his classmates can just strike the speed bags faster.  Some of his classmates can just strike the heavy bags harder.  He would just always be somewhere in the middle.

But everything changed when the class started to do sparring sessions.  He discovered that he has more power than those who are faster than him.  And he can run circles around those who are stronger than him.
 

So he would fight like a big, powerful fighter against those who are quick and nimble.  And fight like a light, fast fighter against those who have size and power.
 
He would win against the quick and nimble ones with solid power strikes.  And against the big and powerful ones with sheer number of hits.

He is not just an ordinary fighter after all... 

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The Fighting Flight: an Alternative to the “Fight-or-Flight” Conundrum (FMA Perspective)

When a person is confronted with a life-threatening situation, his/her nervous system will release a secretion of hormones (substantially consisting of norepinehrine and epinephrine) that will physiologically push him/her into either a “Fight” or a “Flight” response. This phenomenon was first publicly identified in 1915 by Walter Bradford Cannon, a former Chairman of the Department of Physiology at Harvard Medical School.

 

One of the key aims of Martial Arts training is to inject some kind of logical control to this biological response, such that the person faced with a life-threatening situation will not totally be at the mercy of his/her hormonal impulses.  Whether a person will choose “Fight” or “Flight”, that choice should ideally be arrived at on the basis of a rational assessment of the situation, and the conscious selection of the best course of action.
 

But about 30 years ago, I learned from a life-long Martial Arts practitioner family friend that one's choices in life-threatening situations do not have to be restricted to either “Fight” or “Flight”.  There is a Third Choice.

The able-bodied men of an entire village once ganged-up on him due to a bar fight gone bad (his losing opponent shouted “Robber!”).  So he ran.

But while running, he noticed that the village lynch mob chasing him does not actually run together at the same speed.  Someone would always try to play “hero” and break away from the pack by his lonesome.

 

Once someone had broken away from the pack for a considerable distance, he would stop and strike the "hero" down.  This proceeding was repeated several times.

After he had struck down about 5 or 6 “heroes"... the village lynch mob gave up.

Welcome to the world of the Fighting Flight…