I watched for the first time two of Mayweather's most controversial wins (Castillo I and Dela Hoya).
And here are my observations on Floyd:
1. He is a thinking fighter. He has the capability to learn and adapt during a match. Which is probably his greatest strength.
2. He tends to defend first. This buys him time to think about his next move (see no. 1).
3. Because of his defensive predisposition, he will always tend to be a low-volume high-percentage counterpuncher (like a dedicated marksman or sniper in the infantry).
4. He always uses a right-handed stance.
5. He likes to defend his left jaw with a left shoulder roll.
6. He likes to defend his right jaw with his right hand.
7. He likes to defend his lower body with a lowered left arm.
8. He is not an exceptional inside fighter.
9. He will first figure-out his opponent in the opening rounds, then make his move in the latter rounds (once he has established the attacking rhythm and defensive gaps of his opponent).
10. He does not have the capability to deliver a one-punch knock-out in the opening rounds.
To counter the foregoing, this is what Manny should do:
1. Deny him the luxury of having the time to think. And the best way to achieve this in boxing is through sheer head-punch volume. Regular jabs to the head is particularly disrupting to a boxer who likes to think in the ring.
2. Force him to fight outside his defensive comfort zone during certain rounds of the fight. To do this, Manny must convincingly beat him in the opening rounds so that he will be forced to play "catch-up" in the latter rounds.
3. If he can maintain his regular punch volume, he will easily outscore Mayweather. But he should also watch out for a Marquez-like match-ending counterpunch.
4. He should keep moving towards Floyd's left.
5. Don't target his left jaw. Target the top left side of his head instead (i.e. left ear, left temple, left eye).
6. Don't target his right jaw. Target the top right side of his head instead (i.e. right ear, right temple, right eye).
7. He can only attack Floyd's body once he has hurt Floyd's head. So, hurt that big head in the early rounds. Then go for the body once that left arm is up.
8. Unfortunately, Manny is not also an exceptional inside fighter. So fighting inside is out of the equation.
9. He should vary his fighting style and punching targets throughout the match. Say, advancing style and primarily headshots in the first 3 rounds (knock-out zone). Retreating style and primarily body shots in the next 4 rounds (resting zone). Back to advancing style and primarily head shots in the next 3 rounds (knock-out zone). The choice of style in the last 2 rounds will depend on where the scorecards stand at the end of the 10th round (either insurance or desperation zone).
10. He should use this window to go for Floyd's head big time. And this is the main reason why I boldly predicted a Pacquiao win by knock-out in the early rounds.
Although I am obviously rooting for Manny Pacquiao, I also want this to be a fair fight.
So I would hate to see this fight decided by the referee or the judges.
May God let the better fighter prevail...
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